The U.S. population is aging. Today, 1 in 6 Americans are 65 or older; that demographic is expected to nearly double by 2060. The prevalence of chronic illness is also increasing, driving the frequency of medical procedures and the need for qualified medical professionals to perform them. Meanwhile, the U.S. faces a shortage of doctors and nurses, creating a reality where staffing doesn’t meet demand. Almost 100 million Americans live in primary health care shortage areas.
A 2021 Association of American Medical Colleges study estimates the physician shortage could range from roughly 38,000 to 124,000 physicians by 2034. The nursing workforce is rapidly changing too. Many nurses are either leaving the profession entirely or are at retirement age—nearly 1 in 5 nurses are 65 or older, according to a 2020 study from the National Council of State Boards of Nursing.
The employment of advanced practice registered nurses, such as nurse midwives, nurse practitioners, and nurse anesthetists, is estimated to grow by 40% from 2021 to 2031. This projected growth reflects the health care system’s need for additional primary care capacity, and these particular roles allow for greater clinical autonomy and, therefore, greater efficiency.
Job growth in nursing is expected to outpace growth in most other areas of health care, except for home health and personal care aides. The fear of violence among in-home health care aides, dangerous conditions, low wages, and weak regulatory protections are driving an enormous shortage in this area of critical care. However, these fears are not unfounded—1 in 5 home care workers reported being victims of verbal abuse from patients or family members.
Incredible Health used Bureau of Labor Statistics data to compile a list of jobs projected to grow the most in nursing, ranked by their percent of expected employment growth from 2021 to 2031. The analysis also compares growth in nursing professions to other health care roles expected to be in some state of flux over the next decade. As projections are based on assumptions and trends that may not hold true in the face of unforeseen circumstances, these numbers are subject to change.
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#5. Registered nurses
– Projected employment growth, 2021-2031: 6.2% (195,400 jobs)
– Comparison to non-nursing health care roles:
— 157,000 more new jobs than physician assistants
— 169,800 more new jobs than physical therapist assistants
— 184,400 more new jobs than occupational therapy assistants
— 728,600 fewer new jobs than home health and personal care aides
The full-time registered nurse workforce is projected to grow to 4.5 million by 2030—just over a million more registered nurses than were employed in 2018. That growth is enough to replace registered nurses from the baby boomer generation, many of whom will retire by the end of the decade. Registered nurses are versatile and essential members of the nursing workforce. A report from the National Library of Medicine identified more than 30 different health care settings in which registered nurses provide direct primary care or support the primary care practitioners, underscoring their integral role in the country’s overall health care system.
#4. Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses
– Projected employment growth, 2021-2031: 6.3% (41,300 jobs)
– Comparison to non-nursing health care roles:
— 2,900 more new jobs than physician assistants
— 15,700 more new jobs than physical therapist assistants
— 30,300 more new jobs than occupational therapy assistants
— 882,700 fewer new jobs than home health and personal care aidesLicensed practical and licensed vocational nurses are a pivotal part of the health care system and will become even more essential as the aging population seeks health care. These nurses are responsible for patient safety and comfort in clinical care settings. They also help manage the flow of communication between patients, their families, and the rest of their health care team. LPNs and vocational nurses provide essential services in various health care settings, including nursing homes, hospitals, rehabilitation centers, and schools. Their patient census tends to be more racially and ethnically diverse, providing important touchpoints to potentially underserved populations.
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#3. Nurse midwives
– Projected employment growth, 2021-2031: 7.5% (600 jobs)
– Comparison to non-nursing health care roles:
— 37,800 fewer new jobs than physician assistants
— 25,000 fewer new jobs than physical therapist assistants
— 10,400 fewer new jobs than occupational therapy assistants
— 923,400 fewer new jobs than home health and personal care aides
A certified nurse midwife is a registered nurse qualified to provide care during preconception, pregnancy, birth, and postpartum. Many nurse midwives have long-term relationships with their patients and treat them from puberty through menopause, developing trust and familiarity. Midwifery prioritizes wellness and holistic practices, giving mothers greater autonomy than is typical during OB-GYN-guided hospital deliveries. More women, particularly millennials and younger generations, are electing to deliver their babies at home, driving the growing demand for midwifery. The number of women who had babies at home increased by 20% from 2019 to 2020.
#2. Nurse anesthetists
– Projected employment growth, 2021-2031: 11.8% (5,300 jobs)
– Comparison to non-nursing health care roles:
— 33,100 fewer new jobs than physician assistants
— 20,300 fewer new jobs than physical therapist assistants
— 5,700 fewer new jobs than occupational therapy assistants
— 918,700 fewer new jobs than home health and personal care aidesNurse anesthetists are registered nurses specializing in anesthesiology. Their education typically consists of completing an accredited nurse anesthesia program, one year of clinical experience in an intensive care unit, and passing the National Certification Examination for Nurse Anesthetists. Many nurse anesthetists are employed at private practices, outpatient facilities, rural hospitals, dentists’ offices, and other health care settings where traditional anesthesiologists might not be available. As the aging population seeks treatment for chronic illnesses, a larger nurse anesthetist workforce will be essential in preventing scheduling and procedural bottlenecks.
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#1. Nurse practitioners
– Projected employment growth, 2021-2031: 45.7% (112,700 jobs)
– Comparison to non-nursing health care roles:
— 74,300 more new jobs than physician assistants
— 87,100 more new jobs than physical therapist assistants
— 101,700 more new jobs than occupational therapy assistants
— 811,300 fewer new jobs than home health and personal care aides
The vast demand for nurse practitioners reflects the urgent need for skilled medical professionals who can treat patients directly with complete clinical autonomy. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the federal government and many states temporarily lifted restrictions on what nurse practitioners could do and how they could interact with patients, such as treating patients directly without a supervising physician, to maximize treatment capacity.
Currently, 22 states and the District of Columbia allow full practice status for nurse practitioners, with more states looking to also expand nurse practitioner capabilities. This designation permits nurse practitioners to independently examine, diagnose, interpret diagnostic tests, and prescribe medications.
